Using a normalized CES function with factor-augmenting technical progress, we estimate a supply-side system of the US economy from 1953 to 1998. Avoiding potential estimation biases that have occurred in earlier studies and putting a high emphasis on the consistency of the data set, required by...

Fed’s policymakers overestimated the negative output gap, leading them to prolong the monetary expansion beyond the necessary during the pandemic. The prolonged money expansion contributed to fuel inflation during the post-recession rebound. The policy mistake was the result of an inaccurate...

The reaction of hours worked to technology shocks represents a key controversy between RBC and New Keynesian explanations of the business cycle. It sparked a large empirical literature with contrasting results. We demonstrate that, with a more general and data coherent supply and production...

This article uses a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) approach to study the different shocks to the monetary performance in the two decades of the US economy prior to the 2008 financial crisis. By using the Federal Fund Rate as a measure of change in the monetary policy, this study shows...

In this study, we examine the impact of Fed's monetary policy stance on stock analyst coverage and analyst revisions in the U.S. Similar to the previous studies, here the series of consecutive increases (decreases) in the Fed funds rate define periods of contractionary (expansionary) monetary...

We present strong empirical evidence favoring the role of effective demand in the US economy, in the spirit of Keynes and Kalecki. Our inference comes from a statistically well-specified VAR model constructed on a quarterly basis from 1980 to 2008. US output is our variable of interest, and it...

The causes and consequences of the cyclical fluctuations in the top compensation share (TCS) and top capital income share (TKIS) are studied through the lens of an estimated two-agent New Keynesian model, featuring top and middle-class earners, capital-skill complementarity, and differences in...

Nahezu alle Institutionen –Kündigungsschutz, Gewerkschaften, Lohnspreizung, Arbeitslosenversicherung etc.- wurde verdächtigt und schuldig gesprochen die tragische Entwicklung der Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa verursacht zu haben. US-amerikanische Arbeitsmarktinstitutionen wurden zum Benchmark...

Overnight money market rates are the predominant operational target of monetary policy. As a consequence, central banks have redesigned the implementation of monetary policy to keep the deviations of the overnight rate from the key policy rate small and short-lived. This paper uses fractional...

We propose a benchmark prior for the estimation of vector autoregressions: a prior about initial growth rates of the modeled series. We first show that the Bayesian vs frequentist small sample bias controversy is driven by different default initial conditions. These initial conditions are...