In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of thepost-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate astylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during“normal...

The Lucas critique has exposed the problem of the trade-off between changes in monetary policy and structural breaks in economic time series. The search for and characterisation of such breaks has been a major econometric task ever since. We have developed an integral technique similar to CUSUM...

Empirical work on the impacts of labour market institutions has produced mixed results. Much of this literature is based on reduced form regressions that are subject to severe econometric and measurement issues. This paper develops a framework to study the impact of labour market institutions in...

Using the Albrecht et al. (2003) version of the Machado and Mata (2005) decomposition technique along the wage distribution, we find that immigrant workers do not affect changes in the Czech wage structure between 2002 and 2006 despite their substantial inflows. Instead, changes in the wage...

A small labour market model for the six largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium) is estimated in a state -space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: a trend labour force component, a trend labour productivity component,...

Die britische Wirtschaft hat die weltwirtschaftliche Schwächephase relativ gut durchgestanden, das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt erhöhte sich 2002 um 1,8%. Die Arbeitslosenquote ist mit 5,1% im Jahresdurchschnitt gegenüber 2001 nur gering gestiegen. 2003 dürfte das reale BIP um 1¾%...

Persistent unemployment after recessions and the policies required to bring it down are the subject of an ongoing debate. One view suggests there are fundamental changes in the labor market that imply a long-term higher rate of unemployment, requiring the implementation of structural policy...

This paper investigates whether OECD countries are facing secular stagnation. Secular stagnation is defined as a situation when policy interest rates bounded at zero fail to stimulate demand sufficiently, due to low or negative neutral real interest rates and low inflation, and when ensuing...

We re-estimate statistical properties and predictive power of a set of Phillips curves, which are expressed as linear and lagged relationships between the rates of inflation, unemployment, and change in labour force. For France, several relationships were estimated eight years ago. The change...

We empirically analyze the effect of policy of the Federal Reserve on the US labor market using the PSID data set. We find that an increase in the federal funds rate decreases the probability that an individual is unemployed. Survival analysis indicates that a rise in the federal funds rate will...