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This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro...
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Using a structural VAR with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility on post-WWII U.S. data, we document a striking negative correlation between the evolution of the long-run coefficient on inflation in the monetary rule and the evolution of the persistence and predictability of...
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require to carry maturity risk. During a boom, profitability is increasing and thus spreads are low, while during a recession … and their appetite to bear the risk of maturity transformation. We first show that fluctuations of the future … profitability of banks’ portfolios affect their ability to cover for any liquidity shortage and hence influence the premium they …
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