, particularly at 12 months. We find that this autocorrelation in monthly inflation leads to significant persistence in the headline …In this paper we model monthly UK inflation and find that there is some small but significant autocorrelation … annual inflation figure. A one-off shock to monthly inflation will have an effect on the headline figure equal to 10% of the …

Whittle estimation method, the research examines the longmemory properties of headline inflation through monthly data from … January 1996 to January 2023. The study expands upon existing knowledge of inflation persistence by exploring its changes and … the various patterns of inflation persistence in Europe. The findings reveal significant differences in the persistence of …

In this paper we investigate dynamics of global inflation and short-run inflation expectations. We estimate a global … inflationary pressure that could drive up inflation expectations: domestic aggregate demand and supply shocks as well as a global … increase in oil price inflation. Our results indicate that inflation expectations tend to increase as inflation accelerates …

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

This chapter examines the concept of inflation persistence in macroeconomic theory. It begins by defining persistence … persistence from the literature on imperfect information models, learning models, and so-called “trend inflation models … — emphasizing the difference between reduced-form and structural persistence. It then examines a number of empirical measures of …

We evaluate the monetary determinants of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia by using the … McCallum rule for money supply. The deviation of actual money growth from the rule is included in the estimation of Phillips … excessive monetary growth on inflation is mixed: It is positive for Poland and Slovakia, but negative for the Czech Republic and …

The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation … expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission … estimates of the New Keynesian inflation model presented here underscore the importance of inflation expectations for the short …

This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook …. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation … long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light …

This paper examines the concept of inflation persistence in macroeconomic theory. It begins with a definition of … persistence, emphasizing the difference between reduced-form and structural persistence. It then examines a number of empirical … measures of reduced-form persistence, considering the possibility that persistence may have changed over time. The paper then …