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An asset bubble relaxes collateral constraints and increases borrowing by credit-constrained agents. At the same time, as the bubble deflates when constraints start binding, it amplifies downturns. We show analytically and quantitatively that the macroprudential policy should optimally respond...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012862442
This paper examines volatility spillovers from changes in the size of the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve (FED) and European Central Bank (ECB) to emerging market economies (EMEs) from 2003 to 2014. We find that EME bond markets are most susceptible to positive volatility spillovers from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636172
During and after the Great Recession of 2008-09, conventional monetary policy in the United States and many other advanced economies was constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. Several central banks implemented large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs, more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011873794
This paper studies the role of narratives for macroeconomic fluctuations. We micro-found narratives as directed acyclic graphs and show how exposure to different narratives can affect expectations in an otherwise standard macroeconomic model. We capture such competing narratives in news media's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014253790
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014319637
The Chinese economy has undergone three major phases: the 1978-97 period marked as the SOE-led economy, the 1998-2015 phase as the investment-driven economy, and the new normal economy since 2016. All three economies have been shaped by the government financial policies, defined as a set of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928237
Emerging markets (EM) face their fifth consecutive year of slowing growth and a possibly longer period of sluggish … responses to the growth slowdown in EM. It reports three main results. First, the slowdown is synchronous and protracted … productivity growth, bouts of policy uncertainty, and an erosion of policy buffers. Both structural and cyclical factors have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011439473
. Instead, "discipline-guided" fiscal rules such as the Stability and Growth Pact or the Fiscal Compact in the Eurozone always …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010403730
conditional profitability distributions. Real GDP growth and the NPL ratio are shown to be the most reliable determinants of bank … profitability. However, the estimated conditional distributions reveal that, while higher growth would raise profits on average, a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843521
The paper analyses the way in which monetary and fiscal policy influences the performances of economic growth. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012725227