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We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*),...
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Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...
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We investigate the synchronization of Eurozone's government bond yields at different maturities. For this purpose, we … combine principal component analysis with random matrix theory. We find that synchronization depends upon yields maturity … partially recover after 2015. We show the existence of a duality between our empirical results and portfolio theory and we point …
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