We show that the contemporaneous and longer horizon impulse responses estimated using small-scale Proxy structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) can be severely biased in the presence of information insufficiency. Instead, we recommend the use of a Proxy Factor Augmented VAR (FAVAR) model that...

We estimate monetary policy reaction functions with threshold effects for the Deutsche Bundesbank using a real-time data set. Estimates based on the deviation of inflation from the Bundesbank's inflation target as threshold variable suggest a switch to a stronger output gap response in the...

Exchange market pressure (EMP) measures the pressure on a currency to depreciate. It adds to the actual depreciation a weighted combination of policy instruments used to ward off depreciation, such as interest rates and foreign exchange interventions, where the weights are their effectiveness....

This paper examines the effects of policy rate announcements on households' inflation expectations over the time period 2003-2015. The effect is estimated using a two-stage least squares regression model. The announced changes are instrumented by a monetary policy surprise variable obtained from...

This study re-examines the effects of monetary policy using Japanese data and a new approach, the shift-share regressor and instrumental variables, which has not been used in previous vector autoregression analyses. We find that consumption and investment respond negatively to interest rates,...

Since causal paths are important for all sciences, my package 'generalCorr' provides sophisticated R functions using four orders of stochastic dominance and generalized partial correlation coefficients. A new test (in Version 1.0.3) replaces Hausman-Wu medieval-style diagnosis of endogeneity...

This paper contributes to the recent debate about the estimated high partial adjustment coefficient in dynamic Taylor rules, commonly interpreted as deliberate interest rate smoothing on the part of the monetary authority. We argue that a high coefficient on the lagged interest rate term may be...