Nominal and real interest rates in advanced economies have been decreasing since the mid-1980s and reached historical low levels in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Understanding why interest rates have fallen is essential for both monetary policy and financial stability. This paper...

The debate on the underlying causes of the decline of interest rates to historically low levels is ongoing both in academia and among policy makers. Several explanations have been put forward, ranging from those citing real and structural factors to those underscoring the importance of cyclical...

The prices of futures contracts on short-term interest rates are commonly used by central banks to gauge market expectations concerning monetary policy decisions. Excess returns - the difference between futures rates and the realized rates - are positive, on average, and statistically...