This paper purports to apply the Kydland-Prescott framework of dynamic inconsistency to the case of fiscal policy, by considering the trade-off between output and debt stabilization. The Government budget constraint provides the link between debt dynamics and the level of activity, influenced by...

During the Great Crisis, most governments in industrial countries supported their domestic financial sector under stress and responded to strong declines in output growth with fiscal stimulus packages. Starting in 2010, attention focused on the sustainability of the resulting debt burdens. We...

In connection with the immensely increasing public debt both within the European Union and in other leading industrial countries of the world, reproaches are made again and again that this constitutes also an increasing burden for the future generations of the population of these countries. Such...

We incorporate monetary policy into a model of stochastic debt sustainability analysis and evaluate the impact of unconventional policies on sovereign debt dynamics. The model optimizes debt financing to trade off financing cost with refinancing risk. We show that the ECB pandemic...

We adapt to the Japanese case a model of stochastic debt sustainability within a monetary policymaking framework. The model incorporates the effects of unconventional monetary policy and its potential unwinding on sovereign debt dynamics. A scenario tree represents stochastic and correlated...

This paper studies the determination of the surpluses of the Brazilian central government. For quarterly data from 1996 through 2011, the empirical strategy included: i) structural break models and nonlinear estimates on the level of public debt, to handle the inertia after 1999, for high levels...

In recent years, government revenues in many EU countries experienced significant and erratic changes, which, a priori, could not be fully explained by macroeconomic developments or by discretionary fiscal policy measures. We investigate this issue by estimating “unexplained” changes in tax...

Realwirtschaftliche Indikatoren deuten daraufhin, dass die Schwächephase der deutschen Konjunktur im Früh-sommer ausläuft. So werden im Baugewerbe die witterungsbedingten Produktionsausfälle aufgeholt, und Aktivi-täten zur Beseitigung der Hochwasserschäden kommen hinzu. Auch der private...

Realwirtschaftliche Indikatoren deuten daraufhin, dass die Schwächephase der deutschen Konjunktur im Frühsommer ausläuft. So werden im Baugewerbe die witterungsbedingten Produktionsausfälle aufgeholt, und Aktivi-täten zur Beseitigung der Hochwasserschäden kommen hinzu. Auch der private...

This paper provides a detailed examination of a new set of fiscal forecasts for the U.S. assembled by Croushore and van Norden (2017) from FOMC briefing books. The data are of particular interest because (1) they afford a look at fiscal forecasts over six complete business cycles and several...