matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze … monetary authorities' reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide …

-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds … extensions improve the density forecasts of real GDP and inflation and their joint forecasts up to an eight-quarter horizon. We … find that adding financial frictions leads to a deterioration in the forecasts, with the exception of longer-term inflation …

horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation …

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting … central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other … margin. An explanation in terms of too high speed of adjustment to the inflation target is supported by the evidence. Norges …

-term interest rates. A rolling, reduced form, vector autoregression of interest rates, unemployment and inflation rates is employed … manner to unemployment and inflation innovations. However, when the group of inflation targeting countries are separately …

applied to quarterly and monthly US inflation in an empirical study. We find that the persistence of quarterly inflation has … and density forecasts for monthly US inflation …

horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation …

This paper analyzes the performance of central banks in 27 inflation targeting countries by examining their success in … achieving their explicit inflation targets. For this purpose, we decompose the inflation gap, the difference between actual … inflation and inflation target, into predictable and unpredictable components. We argue that the central banks are successful if …

level - for predicting inflation in India. Using quarterly data on manufacturing inflation from 1982 to 2007, we find that … the real money gap is a significant predictor of inflation in india. Our results show that this variable is a better … predictor of future inflation at quarterly horizon than the deviation of broad money growth from its target for the whole sample …