This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now-casting) in the euro area. We compare traditional methods used at institutions with a new method proposed by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2005). The method consists in...

Recent studies document the deteriorating performance of forecasting models during the Great Moderation, which conversely implies that forecastability was higher in the preceding era when the economy was unexpectedly volatile. We explain this phenomenon in the context of equilibrium...

We find that 30-minute changes in bond yields around scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements are predictable with the pre-FOMC Blue Chip professionals’ revisions in GDP growth forecasts. A positive pre-FOMC GDP growth revision predicts a contractionary policy news shock...