Using quarterly data for the Federal Republic of Germany, we generate four-quarter-ahead forecasts for real GDP growth. Throughout the seventies and eighties, real M1 is still the best predictor. It clearly outperforms interest rate-based forecasts, and within this group short-run interest rates...

We deal with the evolutions of monetary conditions in Romania before and during the economic crisis, and the extent to which GDP shocks are related to these conditions. The results confirmed the essential role of interest rate, credit and exchange rate in this respect, which underlines the...

We assess the forecasting performance of the nowcasting model developed at the New York FED. We show that the observation regarding a striking difference in the model's predictive ability across business cycle phases made earlier in the literature also applies here. During expansions, the...