This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a...

The paper considers conceptual, methodical and practical aspects of the target financial analysis at the micro level, i.e., the company level, as a new instrument of anticrisis financial management for a company to overcome its financial difficulties and enhance its financial position within a...

Financial shocks represent a major driver of fluctuations in tail risk, defined as the 5th percentile of the forecast distributions of output and inflation. Since the variance and the asymmetry of the forecast distributions are largely driven by the left tail, financial shocks turn out to play a...