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The inability of central banks to attain their target inflation rates in recent years has raised questions about the … extent to which central banks can control the inflation process. This paper discusses the evolution of thought and evidence … since the 1960s on the determinants of inflation and the role that should be played by central banks. The paper highlights …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012615951
In recent years, inflation in the euro area has failed to decelerate decisively while cyclical slack built up in the … analysis conducted on two decades of quarterly data covering 17 countries yields a yes on both counts. First, inflation is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012444759
There is no consensus over the importance of "global forces" on inflation. This study explores the role of structural … breaks in the inflation process, and their timing, whether it is common across countries, and the extent to which "global … forces" are relevant. Three conclusions stand out. Global inflation impacts inflation in both AE and EME, but the impact is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012269197
Regression model for the period 1995Q1 to 2018Q2. The empirical evidence reveals the existence of two inflation regimes during … the period under review. Food inflation, energy inflation, firms’ marginal cost, and imported inflation account for most … exchange rate solely explains price changes in the composite consumers’ basket when inflation switches to high regime …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178169
We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the coefficient in the Phillips curve on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636803
reputation of central banks. Thus, central banks should not try to bring inflation back to the targeted level of 2%. Rather, they …Inflation in advanced economies is low by historical standards but there is no threat of deflation. Slower economic … growth is caused by supply-side constraints rather than low inflation. Below-the-target inflation does not damage the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012230450
We explain the role of the Phillips Curve in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy at the ECB. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced-form estimates and relate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012212851
This paper argues that, with a flat Phillips curve, welfare can be improved if the Central Bank stabilizes the output gap directly. The pursuit of price stability may, in fact, increase price stickiness, flatten the Phillips curve further, increase the distortions due to sticky prices, and lead...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014235795
A pre-test of Ramsey optimal policy versus time-consistent policy rejects time-consistent policy and (optimal) simple rule for the U.S. Fed during 1960 to 2006, assuming the reference new-Keynesian Phillips curve transmission mechanism with auto-correlated cost-push shock. The number of reduced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011597921
Ramsey optimal policy models the persistence of inflation, output gap and federal funds rate without requiring two additional … parameters for inflation indexation and habit persistence. The number of reduced form parameters is larger with Ramsey optimal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011721067