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Since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began announcing its policy decisions in 1994, U.S. stock returns have on average been more than thirty times larger on announcement days than on other days. Surprisingly, these abnormal returns are accrued before the policy announcement. The excess...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009272258
We study the role of asset revaluation in the monetary transmission mechanism. We build an analytical heterogeneous-agents model with two main ingredients: i) rare disasters; ii) heterogeneous beliefs. The model captures time-varying risk premia and precautionary savings in a setting that nests...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014514921
This paper explores the relationship between market liquidity and market return around scheduled Federal Open Market … Committee (FOMC) meetings. We document that market liquidity on the day prior to the announcement contains useful information to … predict the post-FOMC announcement return, which is positive (negative), on average, when liquidity is low (high). Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014255269
Recent findings on the term structure of equity and bond yields pose serious challenges to existing models of equilibrium asset pricing. This paper presents a new equilibrium model of subjective expectations to explain the joint historical dynamics of equity and bond yields (and their yield...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013193433
, flight-to-safety or liquidity premiums? Using data on German nominal bonds between 2005 and 2015, we study the differential … pricing and liquidity of short and long maturity bonds. We find statistically significant, but economically negligible … segmentation in yields and some degree of liquidity segmentation of short-term versus long-term bonds. These results have important …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011940016
Assets have "indirect liquidity" if they cannot be used as media of exchange, but can be traded to obtain a medium of … liquidity, provides closed form solutions for real and nominal assets, and discusses properties of the solutions. Some of these … for teaching concepts from monetary theory. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429961
This paper presents an equilibrium model that provides a rational explanation for two features of data that have been considered puzzling: The positive relation between US dividend yields and nominal interest rates, often called the Fed-model, and the time-varying correlation of US stock and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014209829
This paper estimates the effect of the European Central Banks's monetary policy on the term structure of expected stock market risk premia. Expected stock market premia are solved using analysts' dividend forecasts, the Eurostoxx 50 stock index and Eurostoxx 50 dividend futures. Although...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012285448
We find that the FOMC-announcement-day return premium earned by a firm is positively related to the increase in its ex ante, option-implied skewness prior to the announcement. This finding is consistent with: (1) the existence of an announcement-day Fed put that is partially anticipated by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350063
I propose a new tool to characterize the resolution of uncertainty around FOMC press conferences. It relies on the construction of a measure capturing the level of discussion complexity between the Fed Chair and reporters during the Q&A sessions. I show that complex discussions are associated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012487767