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Baumeister, Christiane - 2021

Asset prices are a valuable source of information about financial market participants.expectations about key macroeconomic variables. However, the presence of time-varying risk premia requires an adjustment of market prices to obtain the market’s rational assessment of future price and policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622575

Stock Return Skewness and the Cross Section of Monetary Policy Announcement Premiums

Chue, Timothy K.; Li, Gang; Chen, Sipeng - 2023

We find that the FOMC-announcement-day return premium earned by a firm is positively related to the increase in its ex ante, option-implied skewness prior to the announcement. This finding is consistent with: (1) the existence of an announcement-day Fed put that is partially anticipated by the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350063

Much ado about nothing : a study of differential pricing and liquidity of short and long term bonds

Driessen, Joost; Nijman, Theodore E.; Simon, Zorka - 2018

, flight-to-safety or liquidity premiums? Using data on German nominal bonds between 2005 and 2015, we study the differential … pricing and liquidity of short and long maturity bonds. We find statistically significant, but economically negligible … segmentation in yields and some degree of liquidity segmentation of short-term versus long-term bonds. These results have important …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011940016

Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Bond Risk Premium

Jiang, Fuwei - 2017

We show that uncertainty of monetary policy (MPU) commands a risk premium in the US Treasury bond market. Using the news based MPU measure in Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016) to capture monetary policy uncertainty, we find that MPU forecasts significantly and positively future monthly Treasury...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968326

The term structure of expectations and bond yields

Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, Emanuel - 2016

How much do term premiums matter for explaining the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates? A lot. We characterize the expected path of nominal and real short-rates as well as inflation using the universe of U.S. surveys of professional forecasters covering more than 500 survey-horizon...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477349

Monetary policy and stock market valuation

Laine, Olli-Matti - 2020

This paper estimates the effect of the European Central Banks's monetary policy on the term structure of expected stock market risk premia. Expected stock market premia are solved using analysts' dividend forecasts, the Eurostoxx 50 stock index and Eurostoxx 50 dividend futures. Although...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012285448

Fundamental disagreement about monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates

Cao, Shuo; Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, … - 2021 - Revised August 2021

Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012249767

Inflation risk premia, yield volatility and macro factors

Berardi, Andrea; Plazzi, Alberto - 2018

We incorporate a latent stochastic volatility factor and macroeconomic expectations in an affine model for the term structure of nominal and real rates. We estimate the model over 1999-2016 on U.S. data for nominal and TIPS yields, the realized and implied volatility of T-bonds and survey...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011877284

Movements in yields, not the equity premium : Bernanke-Kuttner redux

Nagel, Stefan; Xu, Zhengyang - 2024

We show that the stock market price reaction to monetary policy surprises upon announcements of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is explained mostly by changes in the default-free term structure of yields, not by changes in the equity premium. We reach this conclusion based on a new...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015052545

Treasury Safety, Liquidity, and Money Premium Dynamics : Evidence from Recent Debt Limit Impasses

Cashin, David B. - 2020

liquidity dynamics are generally consistent with the theory of the information sensitivity of debt …Treasury securities normally possess unparalleled safety and liquidity and, consequently, carry a money premium. We use … the money premium, safety, and liquidity. Our results shed light on Treasury market dynamics specifically, and debt more …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834175