The author constructs a measure of core inflation using a structural vector autoregression containing oil-price growth, output growth, and inflation. This macro-foundedʺ measure of inflation forecasts total inflation at least as well as other, atheoretical measures. -- Inflation and prices

Can tight and centralized financial regulations prevent financial crises? Governments usually respond to financial crises with tightening and centralizing financial regulations. In this paper, we explore the historical parallels between the governmental responses to the financial crises at the...

We find evidence that the runs on banks and trust companies in the Panic of 1907 were linked to the Bank of England's contractionary monetary policy actions taken in 1906 and 1907 through the medium of copper prices. Results from our VAR models and copper stockpile data support our argument that...

I review the original Monetary Commission's origins and contribution to the legislative effort that led to the passage of the Federal Reserve Act. My immediate purpose is that of identifying that Commission's merits and shortcomings, with the aim of informing the current effort to establish a...

Over the past fourteen years, the U.S. Federal Reserve has rescued overleveraged financial companies, purchased trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities, and created novel facilities to support ordinary businesses, nonprofits, and local governments. While some argue that the Fed has...