the forecast bias. In contrast to the existing literature, we use forecasts submitted by individual FOMC members to …

bring forecast gains when included in forecasting models and can also inform scenario and risk analysis in projection …

tests for forecast rationality show that a necessary condition for good forecast performance is satisfied both for Greenbook … and private forecasts, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Tests for forecast accuracy and the …). The relative forecast performance is, however, not robust in the presence of large macroeconomic shocks such as the Great …

practice using data from Sweden. We compare the forecast performance of BVAR and DSGE models with the Riksbank's official, more …- and judgment based forecasts, and show that the combined forecast performs well out-of-sample. In addition, we show the …

then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those …

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … inflation forecast, with relatively good fit of equations for food and domestic oil prices. This model serves as satellite model …