We document that since 1994, the equity premium is earned entirely in weeks zero, two, four and six in FOMC cycle time, that is, even weeks starting from the last FOMC meeting. We causally tie this fact to the Fed by studying intermeeting target changes, Fed funds futures, and internal Board of...

We quantify the importance of non-monetary news in central bank communication. Using evidence from four major central banks and a comprehensive classification of events, we decompose news conveyed by central banks into news about monetary policy, economic growth, and separately, shocks to risk...

We quantify the importance of non-monetary news in central bank communication. Using evidence from four major central banks and a comprehensive classification of events, we decompose news conveyed by central banks into news about monetary policy, economic growth, and separately, shocks to risk...

Using evidence from four major central banks, we decompose news conveyed by central-bank communication into news about monetary policy (monetary news), as well as non-monetary news, i.e., news about economic growth and news affecting financial risk premia. Our approach exploits high-frequency...

Since mid-1990s, negative stock returns comove with downgrades to the Fed's growth expectations and predict policy accommodations. Textual analysis of FOMC documents reveals that policymakers pay attention to the stock market. The primary mechanism is policymakers' concern with the...

We quantify the importance of non-monetary news in central bank communication. Using evidence from four major central banks and a comprehensive classification of events, we decompose news conveyed by central banks into news about monetary policy, economic growth, and separately, shocks to risk...

Since the mid-1990s, low stock returns predict accommodating policy by the Federal Reserve. This fact emerges because, over this period, negative stock returns comove with downgrades to the Fed's growth expectations. Textual analysis of the FOMC documents reveals that policymakers pay attention...