We examine the causal relationship between US monetary policy shocks, exchange rates and currency excess returns for a sample of eight advanced countries over the period 1980M1 to 2022M11. We find that the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate is the main driver of currency excess returns. The...

This paper investigates the PPP and UIP conditions by taking into account possible nonlinearities as well as the role of Taylor rule deviations under alternative monetary policy frameworks. The analysis is conducted using monthly data from January 1993 to December 2020 for five...

We develop an empirical model of exchange rate returns, applied separately to samples of developed (DM) and developing (EM) economies' currencies against the dollar. Monetary policy stance of the global central banks, measured via a natural-language-based approach, has a large effect on exchange...

Recent research has found that macroeconomic survey forecasts of uncertainty exhibit several deficiencies, such as horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation uncertainty forecasts from the Bank of England, the Banco...

We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a...

This study analyzes the effect of monetary policy, which are proxied by weighted average cost of funding (WACF) and Borsa Istanbul repurchase interest rate (REPO), on the returns of the main financial assets of monetary policy in Türkiye. Using daily data between January 4, 2011 and August 31,...

In this paper, we examine how carry trade activity affects the transmission of monetary policy in currency markets. We analyze a large set of currencies against the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar appreciates in response to a conventional monetary policy shock but depreciates to an information...

Monetary policy loosening and the associated impact on credit availability may have played a role in the present financial crisis. If such liquidity risk exists and is undiversifiable, then loose monetary policy should be associated with a risk premium. This paper tests for the existence of such...

The relation between the dollar's value and stock prices is controversial. Our analysis shows that returns were 2.6 times higher when the dollar was trending up versus down. Our key insight is that dollar trends should be evaluated in light of monetary policy. While stocks returns have been...

We analyze the impact of Eurozone/Germany and U.S. macroeconomic news announcements and the communication of the monetary policy settings of the ECB and the Fed on the forex markets of new EU members. We employ an event study methodology to analyze intra-day data from 2011-2015. Our...