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We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*),...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705391
Recent findings on the term structure of equity and bond yields pose serious challenges to existing models of … dynamics of equity and bond yields (and their yield spreads). The movements of equity and bond yields are driven mainly by … returns/yields and nominal bond returns/yields switched from positive to negative after the late 1990s, owing mainly to a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013193433
Equilibrium bond-pricing models rely on inflation being bad news for future growth to generate upward-sloping nominal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011864574
Some key features in the historical dynamics of U.S. Treasury bond yields-a trend in long-term yields, business cycle …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012201422
Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012425011
A convenience yield represents a difference between yield on a safe bond and yield on a synthetic safe bond …, constructed by combining a risky bond with a CDS contract. We explain the shapes of eurozone sovereign convenience curves using a … model in which arbitrageurs face higher funding costs on bonds with credit risk and bond demand shocks induce funding risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013373329
Riksbank and the European Central Bank (ECB) on bond risk premia in the Swedish government bond market. Using a novel arbitrage …-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for bondspecific safety premia, we find that … Sveriges Riksbank's bond purchases raised inflation and short-rate expectations, lowered nominal and real term premia and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014517711
the time-varying correlation of US stock and bond returns. Key ingredients are time-varying first and second moments of … bond returns. High levels of macro volatility in the late 1970s and early 1980s caused stock and bond returns to comove …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014209829
We combine modern methods from Speech Emotion Recognition and Natural Language Processing with high-frequency financial data to analyze how the vocal emotions and language of ECB President Mario Draghi affect the yield curve of major euro area economies. Vocal emotions significantly impact the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014255461
observed government bond yields and survey-based expected average short rates. Our term premiums measured directly based on … rates, and uncover a number of important facts: 1) the bulk of the variation in medium- and long-term bond yields is driven … shocks playing the most prominent role; and 5) the secular decline of U.S. long-term bond yields over the past thirty years …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477349