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Risk and policy uncertainty on stock-bond return correlations : evidence from the US markets
Chiang, Thomas C. - In: Risks : open access journal 8 (2020) 2/58, pp. 1-16
This paper investigates dynamic correlations of stock-bond returns for different stock indices and bond maturities. Evidence in the US shows that stock-bond relations are time-varying and display a negative trend. The stock-bond correlations are negatively correlated with implied volatilities in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012292914
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Why Does the Fed React to the Stock Market Changes? : A Covariance Decomposition Analysis
Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur - 2011
This paper investigates the factors that affect the covariance between the federal funds rate and stock returns. I estimate a VAR system and implement covariance decomposition analysis. Most of the covariance between the federal funds rate and stock returns is affected by changes in stock market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125852
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The impact of macroeconomic factors on the German stock market : evidence for the crisis, pre- and post-crisis periods
Celebi, Kaan; Hönig, Michaela - In: International Journal of Financial Studies : open … 7 (2019) 2/18, pp. 1-13
Today we live in a post-truth and highly digitalized era characterized by a flow of (mis-) information around the world. Identifying the impact of this information on stock markets and forecasting stock returns and volatilities has become a much more difficult task, perhaps almost impossible....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012039605
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Inferring Equity Durations Around FOMC Surprises : Estimates and Implications
Chen, Zhanhui - 2020
because expected future cash-flow growth varies with the discount rates. The traditional Macaulay duration captures the effect … from the discount-rate channel. I propose a novel duration measure, the effective equity duration, to capture the effects … is hump-shaped because expected future cash flow growth increases with the discount rates. The effective equity duration …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012851441
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The response of stock market volatility to futures-based measures of monetary policy shocks
Gospodinov, Nikolaj; Jamali, Ibrahim - 2014
's effect on fundamentals. The estimation results from a bivariate VAR-GARCH model suggest that the Fed does not respond to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395968
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The Response of Stock Market Volatility to Futures-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Shocks
Gospodinov, Nikolay - 2015
's effect on fundamentals. The estimation results from a bivariate VAR-GARCH model suggest that the Fed does not respond to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013026088
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Fundamental disagreement about monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates
Cao, Shuo; Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, … - 2021 - Revised August 2021
Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012249767
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Equity Returns, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy
Li, Yijie; Suominen, Matti - 2020
We investigate both theoretically and empirically how unemployment level and its growth affect future stock returns. We find that both a higher unemployment rate and higher growth of unemployment positively predict future stock market returns. In our model, the effects come through their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014352081
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Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation
Bianchi, Francesco; Lettau, Martin; Ludvigson, Sydney C. - 2021
We document large, longer-term, joint regime shifts in asset valuations and the real federal funds rate-r* spread. To interpret these findings, we estimate a novel macro-finance model of monetary transmission and find that the documented regimes coincide with shifts in the parameters of a policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234115
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Evolution of Monetary Mechanism in the U.S : The Role of Asset Returns
Simo-Kengne, Beatrice - 2016
This paper investigates whether changes in the monetary transmission mechanism as captured by the interest rate respond to variations in asset returns. We distinguish between low-volatility (bull) and high-volatility (bear) markets and employ a TVP-VAR approach with stochastic volatility to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013007288