We document that since 1994, the equity premium is earned entirely in weeks zero, two, four and six in FOMC cycle time, that is, even weeks starting from the last FOMC meeting. We causally tie this fact to the Fed by studying intermeeting target changes, Fed funds futures, and internal Board of...

This paper examines whether the negative association between aggregate earnings and returns is explained by the monetary policy news in aggregate earnings. Using Federal funds futures data to construct a measure of policy news, we find that aggregate earnings convey information about the Fed's...

This paper documents a strong association between stock-bond (SB) correlations and monetary policy regimes for a sample of 10 developed markets. Negative stock-bond correlations are associated with periods of accommodating monetary policy, but only in times of low inflation. Irrespective of the...

We document strong U.S. stock and bond return predictability from several macroeconomic volatility series before 1982, and a significant decline in this predictability during the Great Moderation. These findings are robust to alternative empirical specifications and out-of-sample tests. We...

This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically...

Since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began announcing its policy decisions in 1994, U.S. stock returns have on average been more than thirty times larger on announcement days than on other days. Surprisingly, these abnormal returns are accrued before the policy announcement. The excess...

This paper empirically investigates the following three questions: (i) Do stock returns respond to monetary policy shocks? (ii) Do stock returns alter the transmission mechanism of monetary policy? and (iii) Does monetary policy systematically react to stock returns? Existing research based on...

This study utilizes a macro-based VAR framework to investigate whether stock portfolios formed on the basis of their value, size and past performance characteristics are affected in a differential manner by unexpected US monetary policy actions during the period 1967-2007. Full sample results...

The monetary policy shocks have been widely regarded to have effects on the financial markets. Before the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve adjusted the federal funds target rate to implement the monetary policy. This paper uses event studies to examine the relationship between the...