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Subjective models of the macroeconomy : evidence from experts and a representative sample
Andre, Peter; Pizzinelli, Carlo; Roth, Christopher; … - 2019
We propose a method to measure people's subjective models of the macroeconomy. Using a sample of 2,200 households representative of the US population and a sample of more than 1,000 experts, we measure beliefs about how the unemployment rate and the inflation rate respond to four different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012104048
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The effects of monetary policy : theory with measured expectations
Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2023
We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013489702
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The effects of monetary policy : theory with measured expectations
Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2023
We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013493004
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The Effects of Monetary Policy : Theory with Measured Expectations
Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2023
We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014262696
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Managing households' expectations with salient economic policies
D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Weber, Michael - 2019 - This version: August 2019
The empirical effectiveness of economic policies that operate theoretically through similar channels differs substantially. We document this fact by comparing an easy-to-grasp expectations-based policy, unconventional fiscal policy, with a policy whose implications are harder to understand by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057290
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Managing households' expectations with unconventional policies
D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Weber, Michael - 2021
Binding lower bounds on interest rates and large government deficits limit the scope of fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate households' spending through financial intermediaries and firms. Policymakers have thus been implementing unconventional policies that aim to increase households'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012490917
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Essays on inflation expectations, monetary policy and tax reform
Westergren, Kerstin - 2021
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012618533
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Money as insurance
Laurila, Hannu - In: Risks : open access journal 10 (2022) 12, pp. 1-13
stock market crashes, bank fails and other setbacks that endanger the yield of illiquid savings. In turbulent times, the … insurance motive to save money increases total savings by replacing deposit saving more than one-to-one. The share of deposit … savings depends positively on the expected interest rate, while the share of cash savings is the higher the less there is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014230960
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The term structure of expectations
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, Emanuel; … - 2021
Economic theory predicts that intertemporal decisions depend critically on expectations about future outcomes. Using the universe of professional survey forecasts for the United States, we document the behavior of the entire term structure of expectations for output growth, inflation, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660381
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Firms' expectations on the availability of credit since the financial crisis
Ferrando, Annalisa; Ganoulis, Ioannis; Preuss, Carsten - 2019
Using a large set of firm-level survey data from the euro area since 2009, we analyse how firms use their information to form expectations on the availability of bank finance. Our results suggest that firms update what otherwise look like adaptive expectations on the basis of the latest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012135893