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Subjective models of the macroeconomy : evidence from experts and a representative sample
Andre, Peter; Pizzinelli, Carlo; Roth, Christopher; … - 2019
the inflation rate respond to four different hypothetical exogenous shocks: a monetary policy shock, a government spending … shock, an income tax shock, and an oil price shock. While expert predictions are quantitatively close to benchmarks from … predictions of changes in inflation are at odds with those of experts both for the tax shock and the interest rate shock. We show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012104048
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Heterogeneous expectations, indeterminacy, and postwar US business cycles
Ilabaca, Francisco; Milani, Fabio - 2020
This paper estimates a New Keynesian model extended to include heterogeneous expectations, to revisit the evidence that postwar US macroeconomic data can be explained as the outcome of passive monetary policy, indeterminacy, and sunspot-driven fluctuations in the pre-1979 sample, with a switch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012200338
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On the non-optimality of information : an analysis of the welfare effects of anticipated shocks in the New Keynesian model
Wohltmann, Hans-Werner; Winkler, Roland - 2009
anticipation of a future cost-push shock leads to a higher welfare loss than an unanticipated shock. A welfare gain from the … anticipation of a future cost shock may only occur if prices are sufficiently flexible. We show analytically that this result holds …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003826605
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Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Non-Linear Approach
Camacho, Maximo - 2015
second stage, we use those indices to provide assessments of the type of aggregate shock hitting each country and assess its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015439
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Monetary Policy Expectations and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound
Doehr, Rachel - 2017
Using a panel of survey‐based measures of future interest rates from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we study the dynamic relationship between shocks to monetary policy expectations and fluctuations in economic activity and inflation. We propose a smallscale structured recursive vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971223
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Monetary Policy Expectations and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound
Doehr, Rachel - 2015
Using a panel of survey-based measures of future interest rates from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we study the dynamic relationship between shocks to monetary policy expectations and fluctuations in economic activity and inflation. We propose a small-scale structured recursive vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013023060
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Understanding persistent stagnation
Cuba-Borda, Pablo; Singh, Sanjay R. - 2019 - This version: February 2019
We theoretically explore long-run stagnation at the zero lower bound in a representative agent framework. We analytically compare expectations-driven stagnation to a secular stagnation episode and find contrasting policy implications for changes in government spending, supply shocks and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012004630
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Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Changes
Davig, Troy - 2013
This paper makes changes in monetary policy rules (or regimes) endogenous. Changes are triggered when certain endogenous variables cross specified thresholds. Rational expectations equilibria are examined in three models of threshold switching to illustrate that (i) expectations formation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014055201
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Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change
Davig, Troy; Leeper, Eric M. - 2013
This paper makes changes in monetary policy rules (or regimes) endogenous. Changes are triggered when certain endogenous variables cross specified thresholds. Rational expectations equilibria are examined in three models of threshold switching to illustrate that (i) expectations formation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014055631
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Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning
Evans, George W.; McGough, Bruce - 2004
"sunspots." Separately, recent work by a number of authors has shown that sunspot equilibria previously thought to be unstable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014074177