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Tourism Conditions Index (TCI). TCI accounts for the spillover weights based on the Granger causality test and estimates of … Taiwan. The foundation of the TCI is the Financial Conditions Index (FCI), which is derived from the Monetary Conditions … Index (MCI). The empirical findings show that TCI weighted by spillovers reveal greater significance in forecasting the …
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In this paper we apply the Early Warning System methodology to ten Central and Eastern European Countries to find useful sets of indicators which could predict macroeconomic and financial imbalances. We argue that finding such indicators is crucial in the current monetary policy framework...
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This paper introduces a Divisia monetary aggregate for Germany and explores its information content for the Great Recession. Divisia money and the corresponding simple sum aggregate are highly correlated in normal times but begin to diverge before the crisis. Out of sample forecast analysis and...
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