We develop a novel empirical approach to identify the effectiveness of policies against a pandemic. The essence of our approach is the insight that epidemic dynamics are best tracked over stages, rather than over time. We use a normalization procedure that makes the pre-policy paths of the...

This paper examines the effects of labor-replacing capital, which we call robots, on business cycle dynamics using a New Keynesian model with a role for both traditional and robot capital. We find that shocks to the price of robots have effects on output, employment, wages, and labor's share of...

Im Rahmen eines monetären kaleckianischen Verteilungs- und Wachstumsmodells mit Konflikt-Inflation wird in dieser Arbeit die Rolle einer Non-Accelerating-Inflation-Rate-of-Unemployment (NAIRU) analysiert. Die kurzfristige Stabilität der NAIRU wird untersucht, indem die Effekte von steigenden...

In Kaleckian models of distribution and growth the equilibrium rate of capacity utilisation may persistently diverge from the "normal rate" of utilisation. We assess this problem following the approach by Dumenil/Levy (1999) who consider the "normal rate" of utilisation in a monetary production...

In the last few decades, real GDP growth and investment in advanced countries have declined in tandem. This slowdown was not the result of weak demand (there has been no shift along the Okun curve), but of a decline in potential output growth (which has shifted the Okun curve to the left). We...

The acceleration of productivity growth during the latter half of the 1990s was both the defining economic event of the decade and a major topic of debate among Federal Reserve policymakers. A key aspect of the debate was the conflict between incoming aggregate data, which initially suggested...

Using a normalized CES function with factor-augmenting technical progress, we estimate a supply-side system of the US economy from 1953 to 1998. Avoiding potential estimation biases that have occurred in earlier studies and putting a high emphasis on the consistency of the data set, required by...

The reaction of hours worked to technology shocks represents a key controversy between RBC and New Keynesian explanations of the business cycle. It sparked a large empirical literature with contrasting results. We demonstrate that, with a more general and data coherent supply and production...

We present strong empirical evidence favoring the role of effective demand in the US economy, in the spirit of Keynes and Kalecki. Our inference comes from a statistically well-specified VAR model constructed on a quarterly basis from 1980 to 2008. US output is our variable of interest, and it...

We develop a two-sector, heterogeneous-agent model with incomplete financial markets to study the distributional effects and aggregate welfare implications of alternative monetary policy rules in emerging market economies. Relative to inflation targeting, exchange rate management benefits...