Building on the literature on trust in institutions, the article looks at the state, evolution and sociodemographic breakdown of citizens' trust in the ECB and support for the euro. Drawing on a novel typology of attitudes towards Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and using microdata from...

The euro and the European Central Bank (ECB) are inextricably linked at the institutional level, yet public opinion diverges: support for the euro remained high even at the height of the crisis while trust in the ECB saw a steep decline. How can we explain divergences between support for the...

Understanding the impact of changes in interest rates on house prices is important for managing house price bubbles and ensuring housing affordability. This paper investigates the effect of interest rates on regional house price to income measures based on a non-linear smooth transition VAR...

The monetary economy has properties that cannot be analyzed using the tools of today's dynamic general equilibrium analysis. Keynes's economics, far from being an aberration in the otherwise orderly evolution of modern macroeconomics from Adam Smith's ideas about the invisible hand, was a major...

We examine the sources of macroeconomic economic fluctuations by estimating a variety of medium-scale DSGE models within a unified framework that incorporates regime switching both in shock variances and in the inflation target. Our general framework includes a number of different model features...

The possibility of regime shifts in monetary policy can have important effects on rational agents' expectation formation and equilibrium dynamics. In a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where the monetary policy rule switches between a dovish regime that accommodates inflation and a...

The argument that policy risk, i.e. uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic recovery in the U.S. during the Great Recession has a large popular appeal. We analyze the role of policy risk in explaining business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New...

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model on French, German, Italian, and Spanish data. The main aim of this paper is to check for the respective sets of parameters that are stable over time, making use of the ESS procedure ('Estimate of Set of Stable parameters') developed by Inoue and Rossi...

In this paper we quantitatively evaluate the hypothesis that the Great Moderation is partly the result of a less activist monetary policy. We simulate a New Keynesian model where the central bank can only observe a noisy estimate of the output gap and fnd that the less pronounced reaction of the...

This paper examines the methods used by the Bank of Japan for the estimation of the output gap. Attention is paid to the real-time estimation problem. After reviewing the evolution of output gap estimation at the Bank, I discuss advantages and disadvantages of the various output gap measures....