inflation, with emphasis on the role of oil shocks and accommodative monetary policy. The model features oil as a complementary … VAR. We then show that our model does a good job of explaining unemployment and inflation since 2010, including the recent … inflation surge that began in mid 2021. We show that mainly accounting for this surge was a combination oil price shocks and …

. We find that a contractionary oil price shock has a negative effect on the current account which lasts for approximately …

unique survey-based measures of expected inflation, output growth, and interest rates, we estimate a small-scale New … guidance less effective. In a counterfactual analysis, we document that inflation would have been significantly higher, and the … public perceived central bank forward guidance statements to be perfectly credible. Moreover, inflation would have declined …