Campbell, John Y.; Pueger, Carolin; Viceira, Luis M. - 2013 - This draft: August 2013
, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly loglinear … output gap switched from negative to positive in 2001. Higher inflation lowers real bond returns and higher output raises … stock returns, explaining why the bond-stock return correlation changed from positive to negative. In the model risk premia …