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(1) level and risk dynamics. The latter includes (2) tail risk and crisis probability as well as (3) the Volatility …) undercapitalized sectors (8) time-varying risk premia, and (9) the external funding premium are part of the analysis. Financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024265
There is a general acceptance of the fact that a significant direct relationship between financial markets and macroeconomic variables exists, especially by considering the assertion that developed financial markets correspond to high GDP levels. This paper provides an investigation of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011480254
discourages short-term inflows mainly through portfolio risk and precautionary saving channels. A markup channel generates net FDI … irreversibility of FDI, the currency of export invoicing, risk aversion of outside agents, and effective lower bound in the rest of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012201386
We study the link between the global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks using quantile vector autoregressions. Contractionary shocks to financial conditions and monetary policy in the United States cause elevated downside risks to growth around the world. By tightening financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459721
In this paper we investigate the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogenous agents and a stylized banking sector. We show that frictions in credit supply amplify the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009761866
market volatility—and that of policy uncertainty shocks on the economy. We find that financial uncertainty shocks have much …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012935309
determines the variables which are responsible for volatility: the activities of international financial institutions (like the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012242342
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012036619
based on their ability to capture tail risk for economic activity and to predict banking and currency crises. We find that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012653846
In this paper we assess the merits of financial condition indices constructed using simple averages versus a more sophisticated alternative that uses factor models with time varying parameters. Our analysis is based on data for 18 advanced and emerging economies at a monthly frequency covering...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012259350