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Policy Risk and the Business Cycle
Born, Benjamin; Peifer, Johannes - 2011
The argument that policy risk, i.e. uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic recovery in the U.S. during the Great Recession has a large popular appeal. We analyze the role of policy risk in explaining business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293363
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The role of expectations in economic fluctuations and the efficacy of monetary policy
Kurz, Mordecai; Jin, Hehui; Motolese, Maurizio - 2003
We show diverse beliefs is an important propagation mechanism of fluctuations, money non neutrality and efficacy of monetary policy. Since expectations affect demand, our theory shows economic fluctuations are mostly driven by varying demand not supply shocks. Using a competitive model with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298249
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Does money still matter for U.S. output?
Berger, Helge; Österholm, Pär - 2008
In this note, we use multivariate models estimated with Bayesian techniques and an out-ofsample approach to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes output growth in the United States. We find surprisingly strong evidence for a money-output link over the 1960-2005 period. However, further...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299137
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Labor market participation, unemployment and monetary policy
Campolmi, Alessia; Gnocchi, Stefano - 2011
In the present paper we examine how the introduction of endogenous participation in an otherwise standard DSGE model with matching frictions and nominal rigidities affects business cycle dynamics and monetary policy. The contribution of the paper is threefold: first, we show that the model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322472
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Regionale Konjunkturunterschiede kein Hinderungsgrund für Geldpolitik im Euroraum
Artis, Michael; Dreger, Christian; Kholodilin, Konstantin A. - In: DIW Wochenbericht 76 (2009) 46, pp. 806-809
USA - prüfen. Es zeigt sich, dass die Unterschiede in der konjunkturellen Entwicklung zwischen den Regionen der Eurozone … nicht größer sind als zwischen den Bundesstaaten der USA. Somit sind die Erfolgsaussichten der Geldpolitik im Euroraum … keineswegs schlechter als in den USA. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602090
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Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach
Smets, Frank; Wouters, Raf - 2007
Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the US economy using seven macro-economic time series. The model incorporates many types of real and nominal frictions and seven types of structural shocks. We show that this model is able to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604768
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Inflation risk premia in the US and the euro area
Hördahl, Peter; Tristani, Oreste - 2010
We use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia in the United States and the euro area. To sharpen our estimation, we include in the information set macro data and survey data on inflation and interest rate expectations at various future...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605316
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Expectations, monetary policy, and labor markets: lessons from the Great Depression
Reicher, Christopher Phillip - 2009
This paper estimates a series of shocks to hit the US economy during the Great Depression, using a New Keynesian model with unemployment and bargaining frictions. Shocks to long-run inflation expectations appear to account for much of the cyclical behavior of employment, while an increase in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276373
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On the periodicity of inventories
Shibayama, Katsuyuki - 2008
This article studies inventories and monetary policy by estimating VAR models. The complex roots detected in our estimation generate cycles of around 55 to 70 months, which are quite close to actual business cycle lengths. This implies that production and inventories follow damped oscillations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277802
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Deutsche Wirtschaft noch in der Defensive: Aber erste Anzeichen für ein Ende des Abschwungs
Drygalla, Andrej; Exß, Franziska; Heinisch, Katja; … - In: Konjunktur aktuell 12 (2024) 2, pp. 34-90
Seit Beginn des vergangenen Jahres expandiert die Weltwirtschaft in moderatem Tempo. Allerdings gerät in den USA das … nur für die USA hat zu einem Wiederanstieg der Kapitalmarktzinsen geführt. Dagegen hat die chinesische Wirtschaftspolitik … Verbesserung des globalen Geschäftsklimas im Frühsommer schließen. Dennoch bleiben die Aussichten für die internationale Konjunktur …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014583755