Showing 1 - 10 of 10,899
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009757117
practice using data from Sweden. We compare the forecast performance of BVAR and DSGE models with the Riksbank's official, more …- and judgment based forecasts, and show that the combined forecast performs well out-of-sample. In addition, we show the … advantages of structural analysis and use the models for interpreting the recent development of the inflation rate using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011585648
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322555
approach to model the forecasts of the Federal Open Market Committee over 1992-2019 and to forecast those forecasts themselves … projections for inflation, unemployment, and the Fed's policy rate-are themselves predictable by information publicly available at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012642416
money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating … limits. The marginal contribution of money to forecasting accuracy is often small, money adds little to dynamic factor models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156265
's view to forecast FOMC forecasts. Specifically, monetary policy is forward looking and, in its pursuit of transparency, it …-of-sample predictions for inflation, unemployment, and the federal funds rate for 2018. As the reader will soon realize, there is a lot more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012896552
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011664474
This paper revisits the effects of news shocks in the context of an otherwise standard New Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We use the U.S. real-time forecasts from the Federal Reserve's Green Book to model agents' and the central bank's expectations of future macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966974
money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677626
Nigeria. Forecasts were produced using ARIMA, ARIMA with structural variables, VAR and VEC models. The performance of the … forecasts was then evaluated under a rolling forecast scenario, where the estimation sample is augmented by one observation and … the forecast sample is brought forward. The evaluation of the forecasts was based on average performance over a number of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474285