We assess the macroeconomic impact of pandemic-related monetary policy measures of the ECB. Conditioning on counterfactual interest rate paths that would have materialised in the absence of the policies, the macroeconomic effects are measured using structural vector autoregressions. In the...

With the rise in interest rates and the phasing out of ECB's asset purchase programmes, highly indebted countries such as Italy and Greece are facing a sharper rise in their bond yields than Germany - a development often referred to as `bond market fragmentation'. In response, the Governing...

This study aims to explore the extent to which changes in wealth contributes to inflation utilizing a highly flexible non-Gaussian SVAR framework which minimizes the risk of distributional misspecification. We employ narrative sign restrictions to label the asset price shock and leverage the...

Population ageing constitutes a central challenge to Finland. Understanding the Finnish economy's likely future trajectory and the key sources of growth is important for the design of policies to counteract these adverse long-term trends. For this purpose, we develop a novel long-run forecast...

We propose a new Bayesian VAR model for forecasting household loan stocks in Finland. The model is designed to work as a satellite model of a larger DSGE model for the Finnish economy, the Aino 2.0 model. The forecasts produced with the BVAR model can be conditioned on projections of several...