This paper analyzes and quantifies the idea of model risk in the environment of internal model building. We define various types of model risk including estimation risk, model risk in distribution and model risk in functional form. By the quantification of these concepts we analyze the impact of...

In this paper we introduce a new nonlinear Markov-STAR model to capture both the markov switching and smooth transition dynamics for real exchange rates. The Markov switching part captures the effect of time variations of the equilibrium exchange rates, while the smooth transition part models...

Model risk as part of the operational risk is a serious problem for financial institutions. As the pricing of derivatives as well as the computation of the market or credit risk of an institution depend on statistical models the application of a wrong model can lead to a serious over- or...

This paper analyses the effects of discretionary fiscal policy by presenting new empiricalevidence for Germany within a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework. FollowingBlanchard and Perotti (2002), the SVAR model is identified by applying institutionalinformation. We find no...

We investigate to what extent convergence in production levels per worker has beenachieved in Germany since unification. To this end, we model the distributionof GDP per employee across German districts using two-component normal mixtures.While in the first year after unification, the two...

In this paper we evaluate the performance of several structural break tests under various DGPs. Concretely we look at size and power properties of CUSUM based, LM and Wald volatility break tests. In a simulation study we derive the properties of the tests under shifts in the unconditional and...