Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

Trades in DAX index options with identical maturities cluster around particular classes of strike prices. For example, options with strikes ending on 50 are less traded than options with strikes ending on 00. Clustering is higher when options with close strike prices are good substitutes. The...

We analyze price discovery in floor-based and electronic exchanges using data from the German stock market. We find that both markets contribute to price discovery. There is bidirectional Granger causality, and prices from both markets adjust to deviations from the long-run equilibrium. We use...

This paper presents structural estimates for a bargaining model which nests the right-to-manage, the efficient wage bargaining, the seniority and the standard neoclassical labor demand model as special cases. In contrast to most existing models, our approach accounts for heterogeneous skill...

The recent availability of large data sets covering single transactions on financial markets has created a new branch of econometrics which has opened up a new door of looking at the microstructure of financial markets and its dynamics. The specific nature of transaction data such as the...

Our results uncover a so far undocumented ability of the interbank market to distinguish between banks of different quality in times of aggregate distress. We show empirical evidence that during the 2007 financial crisis the inability of some banks to roll over their interbank debt was not due...

In order to shed light on the "black box" of institutional equity investing in a systematic manner, I conducted a broadly based questionnaire which received a large response from German mutual fund companies. The survey asked fund managers for their basic views and practices and for insights...

In this work, I study the impact of high-frequency trading (HFT) on price discovery and volatility in the Bund futures market. Using a new dataset based on microseconds, the focus of the study is on the reaction of high-frequency traders (HFTs) to major macroeconomic news events. I show that...

Empirical evidence suggests that many macroeconomic and financial time series are subject to occasional structural breaks. In this paper we present analytical results quantifying the effects of such breaks on the correlation between the forecast and the realization and on the ability to forecast...

This paper proposes a theoretical analysis on the impacts of using a suboptimal information set on the three main components used in asset pricing, namely the risk physical and neutral measures and the relative pricing kernel.The analysis is carried out by means of a portfolio optimization...