We use a simple macroeconomic model proposed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to investigate the reasons for the recent sharp rise in inflation. Applied to Germany and the euro area, the model suggests that the surge in inflation has mainly been caused by commodity price shocks and supply...

The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission's Consumer Survey and from the surveys of professional experts...

We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and the United Kingdom are updated about once a year, in...

We estimate the sticky information Phillips curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and the United Kingdom are updated about once a year, in...

This paper develops a broad-based sentiment indicator for Germany and investigates whether investor sentiment can explain stock returns on the German stock market. Based on a principal component analysis, we construct a sentiment indicator that condenses information of several well-known...

The observation, analysis and forecasting of inflationary trends is of particular interest to all economic agents -not just to institutions with monetary policy tasks. Almost all central banks have specified a price target as the final goal of monetary policy, for example, and some central banks...