We introduce a high-dimensional structural time series model, where co-movement between the components is due to common factors. A two-step estimation strategy is presented, which is based on principal components in differences in a first step and state space methods in a second step. The...

The paper provides a comparison of alternative univariate time series models that are advocated for the analysis of seasonal data. Consumption and income series from (West-) Germany, United Kingdom, Japan and Sweden are investigated. The performance of competing models in forecasting is used to...

This paper focuses on the cross-dynamics of exchange rate expectations over different time-scales. We use over-the-counter currency options on the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar to extract expected probability density functions of future exchange rates, and...

Bivariate SVAR models employing long-run identifying restrictions are often used to investigate the source of business cycle fluctuations. Their advantage is the simplicity in use and interpretation. However, their low dimension may also lead to a failure of the identification procedure, with...