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Motivated by economic-theory concepts - the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure - we consider a small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short-term interest rates. The set includes vector...
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maturities. On the other hand, the ability of the term structure to forecast future changes in 1-year interest rates is somewhat …
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maturities. On the other hand, the ability of the term structure to forecast future changes in 1-year interest rates is somewhat …
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Untersuchung zeigt der Autor Möglichkeiten der Prognose von Geld- und Kapitalmarktzinssätzen auf. Im Rahmen der dem Konzept der …-Switching-Technik ein. Im zweiten Hauptteil wird aus theoretischer Sicht gezeigt, daß die Prognose von Zinssätzen ökonomisch sinnvoll ist …
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