We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

-specific measures, particularly since the start of EMU, and is useful to predict country-specific inflation. However, it generally does … not encompass country-specific money overhang measures as predictors of inflation. Hence, aggregate money overhang is an …

countryspecific measures, particularly since the start of EMU, and is useful to predict country-specific inflation. However, it … generally does not encompass country-specific money overhang measures as predictors of inflation. Hence, aggregate money … ; money overhang ; inflation forecast …