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The economic forecasts for Germany in the period 2001 to 2003 grossly missed reality. Forecasters estimated an average annual growth rate of 1.6 per cent, but real GDP actually grew by only 0.3 per cent per annum. In 2003 the real GDP in Germany even shrank by 0.1 per cent. Forecasters tend to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262887
This paper analyzes which factors are driving the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. Using the results of a poll among survey participants as well as Granger causality tests we identify three groups of influence factors: other sentiment indicators, financial variables and real economy data. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297299
This paper deals with the estimation of employment equations for Germany, which are to be used for forecasting and …, however, is affected by German reunification and relative factor prices no longer play a significant role. The forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460436
increases in forecasting accuracy. The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis of improved forecasts over time. Design … over 15 years and over several product life cycles (PLCs). Forecasting accuracy is calculated as one minus forecasting … error. Forecasting error is measured with MAD/MEAN for periods of years or relative deviations per month. The hypothesis of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014759151
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a method of forecasting the development of the market shares of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014759986
, factor analysis, LISREL, MIMIC, DYMIMIC, PLS with respect to parameter estimation and forecasting. We got very good results … trend" and "social stability" improved the forecasting performance of an econometric model of the FRG. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004968271
The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. This paper creates a special version of GPM that includes the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries. The EA countries are more vulnerable to domestic and external demand shocks because...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242224
As of 1st January 2011 the German drug market is regulated by the act on the reform of the market for medicinal products (AMNOG). Since then the normal procedure for reimbursement of a new pharmaceutical is a benefit assessment by the joint federal committee (G-BA) which determines one of six...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048307
This paper deals with the estimation of employment equations for Germany, which are to be used for forecasting and …, however, is affected by German reunification and relative factor prices no longer play a significant role. The forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005764576
structural model forecasting in the real estate market with short‐term forecasting techniques designed to predict turning points … sentiment indicators and probit analysis to inform forecasting and risk assessment processes. Originality/value – Acknowledging … raises awareness of a forecasting approach that should complement structural models and judgmental forecasting, given its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014862667