In this paper, the monetary policy independence of European nations in the years before European Monetary Union (EMU) is investigated using cointegration techniques. Daily data is used to assess pairwise relationships between individual EMU nations and ‘lead' nation Germany, to assess the...

The paper presents a comparative analysis of monetary transmission mechanisms and changes in them after the "second ERM" in March 1983. The empirical model investigates the determination of money, income, prices, and interest rates in Germany, Denmark, and Italy based on the cointegrated VAR...

This study analyzes annual wheat prices in 13 German cities in the years 1806 to 1855, together with wheat price series from 44 other European and American cities. The method used is a dynamic factor model, which allows for distinguishing common price uctuations on international and national...

This research note discusses the Euro crisis in Greece in light of the referendum of July the 5th. It lays out the social and political costs of a GREXIT, but also of a continuing austerity policy. It proposes a reform policy fostering growth in Greece and discusses the role of conditionality....

About five decades the Franc CFA - Zone in Western and Central Africa was praised as incarnation of economic and political stability in Africa, backed by France. But free convertibility and fixed parity, guaranteed by the French Treasury, mainly served the interest of a small elite of the...

The article is focused on the analysis of export performance of the German economy, including the model scenarios that illustrate the transmission of shocks to the external environment of the Germany into the Czech economy. The analysis is motivated by the fact that the German economy is by far...

The European Central Bank (ECB) strives to maintain inflation at a 2% target rate, yet the Euro area's diverse economies pose challenges to achieving this goal with a single nominal interest rate. Effective monetary policy transmission hinges on synchronizing the Natural Rate of Interest (NRI)...

Over the past years, there has been an increase in global geopolitical risk, the most recent example being the intensifying conflict between the USA and Iran. Such geopolitical risks also affect the German economy. A geopolitical shock, defined as an unexpected increase in risk, has a...

Globale geopolitische Risiken sind in den letzten Jahren gestiegen. Jüngstes Beispiel ist die sich verschärfende Auseinandersetzung zwischen den USA und dem Iran. Diese Risiken wirken sich auch auf die deutsche Volkswirtschaft aus: Ihr unerwarteter Anstieg, definiert als geopolitischer Schock,...

This paper re-investigates the implications of monetary policy rules on changes in exchange rate, in a risk-adjusted, uncovered interest parity model with unrestricted parameters, emphasizing the importance of modeling market expectations of monetary policy. I use consensus forecasts as a proxy...