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The aim of the article is to clarify the controversies surrounding the relationship between inflation and unemployment … also an increase in inflation. The article, therefore, hypothesises that the relationships between unemployment and …, and Germany, during the coronavirus pandemic (from January 2020 to February 2022). The pandemic has had various adverse …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015063564
This paper deals with a critical assessment and a reestimation of the "non-accelerating in ation rate of unemployment …" (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an understandable and easy-to-use analytical … is made to estimate a NAIRU for Germany based on conventional Phillips curves as well as on new approaches such as using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011448601
estate, as well as the costs of public goods to develop alternative inflation measures in Germany since the introduction of … the euro. Real economic growth as well as median wage developments are reexamined in light of the alternative inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012291889
regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and …We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003973538
indicators for the US and Germany, we demonstrate that our inflation sentiment indicators improve forecast accuracy in comparison …In this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their … inflation sentiment. We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012722363
inflation. We find that sentiment indicators are competitive in providing inflation forecasts against a large set of common …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956134
We use Bayesian additive regression trees to reexamine the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts for Germany. To …-term growth and longer-term inflation forecasts. We cannot reject weak efficiency of short-term growth and inflation forecasts. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822387
inflation. We find that sentiment indicators are competitive in providing inflation forecasts against a large set of common …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011644446
techniques can help to improve the nowcast of monthly German inflation in real time. Our nowcasting exercise targets three … the lowest aggregation level underlying official German inflation, such as those of butter and coffee beans. We show that … demonstrate that these scanner-based price indices improve inflation nowcasts at this very narrow level, notably already after the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014467924
the real-time nowcast of German inflation. Our nowcasting exercise targets three hierarchy levels of inflation: individual … products, product groups, and headline inflation. At the individual product level, we construct a large set of weekly scanner …-frequency setup, these indices significantly improve inflation nowcasts already after the first seven days of a month. For nowcasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014527067