below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than … anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 … find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s but has …

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation,for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then …

A regime shift towards increased inflation expectations is credited with jumpstarting the recovery from the Great … Depression in the United States. Germany experienced a recovery as fast and strong in the 1930s. What role did inflation … expectations play at the start of this remarkable economic upturn? To answer this question, we study inflation expectations in …

Since 2021, the inflation rate in Germany and the euro area has increased significantly. At the same time, there are … increasing signs of ``de-anchoring'' of inflation expectations in Germany. This paper - building on the approach of Andre et al …. (2022) - examines in a pilot study survey-based narratives for the rising inflation together with socio-economic factors. A …

The aim of the article is to clarify the controversies surrounding the relationship between inflation and unemployment … also an increase in inflation. The article, therefore, hypothesises that the relationships between unemployment and … inflation in the countries studied during the above period were unidirectional. To verify this hypothesis, two basic research …

Since 2021, the inflation rate in Germany and the euro area has increased significantly. At the same time, there are … increasing signs of ``de-anchoring'' of inflation expectations in Germany. This paper - building on the approach of Andre et al …. (2022) - examines in a pilot study survey-based narratives for the rising inflation together with socio-economic factors. A …

-dependence; for periods of relatively high and volatile inflation not only the size of price changes (intensive margin) but also the … fraction of price adjustment (extensive margin) is important for aggregate inflation dynamics. Moreover, at the business cycle … frequency, variations in the extensive margin explain a large fraction of inflation variability even for moderate inflation …

inflation series of the euro area CPI translates into the slow adjustment of euro area aggregate inflation. We first estimate a … dynamic factor model for 404 inflation sub-indices of the euro area CPI. This allows to decompose the dynamics of inflation … the overall variance of the 404 disaggregate inflation series, is the main driver of aggregate dynamics. In addition, the …

inflation series of the euro area CPI translates into the slow adjustment of euro area aggregate inflation. We first estimate a … dynamic factor model for 404 inflation sub-indices of the euro area CPI. This allows to decompose the dynamics of inflation … overall variance of the 404 disaggregate inflation series, is the main driver of aggregate dynamics. In addition, the …

We use Bayesian additive regression trees to reexamine the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts for Germany. To …-term growth and longer-term inflation forecasts. We cannot reject weak efficiency of short-term growth and inflation forecasts. We …