Market reaction to a change in official interest rates will depend on the extent to which the change is anticipated, and on how it is interpreted as a signal of future policy. In this paper, a technique is developed to separate the anticipated and unanticipated components of such changes and is...

In this paper we estimate the magnitude of spillovers between bond markets in the U.S. and Germany following monetary policy communications by the FOMC and the ECB. The identification of policy-related co-movements following FOMC announcements, in particular, can be difficult because many...

Motivated by economic-theory concepts - the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure - we consider a small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short-term interest rates. The set includes vector...

In the aftermath of the global financial and economic crisis, the ECB became deeply involved in activities aimed at stabilizing the financial system, over-leveraged banks, and over-indebted governments. This article addresses the costs of these monetary policy measures, which heavily exceed the...

In the aftermath of the global financial and economic crisis, the ECB became deeply involved in activities aimed at stabilizing the financial system, over-leveraged banks, and over-indebted governments. This article addresses the costs of these monetary policy measures, which heavily exceed the...