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This paper presents a cliometric application of fractional integrated processes to socio-economic time series for France and Germany in the 19th and 20th centuries. The analysis leads to a significant result: no short or long term cycle appears as the dominant constituent.
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Many empirical studies find a negative correlation between the returns on the nominal spot exchange rate and the lagged forward discount. This forward discount anomaly implies that the current forward rate is a biased predictor of the future spot rate. A large number of studies in the existing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011512994
parameter under the null, and is therefore estimated by bootstrapping. The test is applied to inflation rates of three …
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Using the statistical technique of fuzzy clustering, regimes of inflation and unemployment are explored for the United … inflation/unemployment space. There is considerable similarity across the countries in both the regimes themselves and in the … timings of the transitions between regimes. However, the typical rates of inflation and unemployment experienced in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003883795
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Using the statistical technique of fuzzy clustering, regimes of inflation and unemployment are explored for the United … inflation/unemployment space. There is considerable similarity across the countries in both the regimes themselves and in the … timings of the transitions between regimes. However, the typical rates of inflation and unemployment experienced in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135078