changing expectations about the evolution of the economic conditions in various countries. This paper addresses the first … expectations and current economic conditions at origin are significant determinants of migration, diversion effects account for 78 …

should intervene in the business cycle. Following Ramey (2011b), we include expectations held by consumers and firms into the … findings also underscore the need to account for expectations, as failing to do so leads to significant misinterpretation of … the effects of government spending. In fact, when neglecting anticipation effects, our results support the recent findings …