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Alternative strategies for predicting stock market volatility are examined. In out-of-sample forecasting experiments … implied-volatility information, derived from contemporaneously observed option prices or history-based volatility predictors …, such as GARCH models, are investigated, to determine if they are more appropriate for predicting future return volatility …
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Today we live in a post-truth and highly digitalized era characterized by a flow of (mis-) information around the world. Identifying the impact of this information on stock markets and forecasting stock returns and volatilities has become a much more difficult task, perhaps almost impossible....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012039605
Using a data set of German stocks that includes the financial crisis, this paper identifies market liquidity as the main driver of return seasonality. In comparison, the economic significance of order flow imbalance is markedly weaker. Applying panel regressions and controlling for unobserved...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011814870
allows us to obtain an estimator of the conditional volatility per time. this kind of volatility estimation solves the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011543683
The international transmission of intraday price volatility among the United States, United Kingdom, and Japanese stock … hypothesis is not rejected for theJapanese market, meaning that the shocks to Japanese volatility are mostly country-specific. A …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013309647
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We examine the impact of COVID-19 (C-19) pandemic on global equity markets by constructing novel infection indices. Our results show that the impact of prompt and large-scale policy interventions is ambiguous yet statistically significant. However, in this equivocality, the impact of global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013242732
has generally increased over time, and that in times of crisis liquidity is lower and the volatility of liquidity is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012020325