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We investigate the predictive power of several leading indicators in order to forecast industrial production in Germany … indicators. We show that the best set of predictors, within and between categories, changes over time and depends on the forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012149544
Zeitpunkten werden präsentiert und diskutiert. -- Mehrländermodell ; Prognose ; Bayesianische Ökonometrie …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003950731
Based on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993-2017, the paper …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012293448
The coronavirus recession has left deep marks on the German economy and despite economic policy action, it is likely to heal only slowly. The partial easing of the lockdown and a gradual revival of global value chains are generating positive stimuli, but massive income losses will curb demand...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251300
at the current juncture, our forecast implies that the German economy is entering a boom period. Capacity constraints …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012060677
The momentum of the expansion of the German economy is strong. Unchanged from our winter and spring forecasts, we expect a rise in gross domestic product by 1.7 percent in the current year and by 2 percent in 2018. This implies that throughout the forecasting period the expansion of aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012060693
The German economy continues to perform well although the boom has ended. However, at 1.5 percent, German GDP will increase this year at a lower rate than expected at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, concerns about an imminent recession should give way to the assessment that the pace of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011946925
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011949298
After a turbulent summer, marked by a weak second and a likely stronger third quarter, the German economy should return to an average pace of growth and end up with a growth rate of 0.9 percent in 2019. Despite the more subdued pace, capacity utilization remains high; employment growth is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016596
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011847300