We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to poverty using cross-sectional data and panel … data. We use long-term panel data from Germany and apply different regression models, based on household covariates and … on cross-sectional data are much less accurate than those based on panel data, but for Germany, the accuracy of …

panel data. We use long-term panel data from Germany and apply different regression models, based on household covariates …. Estimates based on cross-sectional data are much less accurate than those based on panel data, but for Germany, the accuracy of … vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and …

context, in terms of potential causes, a distinction is made between a rise in the global risk assessment, tensions within the … large part to monetary policy and to a minor extent to the risk assessment within the euro area. At the peak of the European …

vector autoregression and model averaging techniques, where aggregation takes place before, during and after the estimation …

estimation of the different models, respectively. We find that overall the large Bayesian VAR provides the most precise forecasts …