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Forecasting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Using Fractionally Integrated Models of Conditional Volatility : International Evidence
Degiannakis, Stavros Antonios - 2018
forecasting horizons. Therefore, a long memory volatility model compared to a short memory GARCH model does not appear to improve …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910119
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The role of jumps and leverage in forecasting volatility in international equity markets
Buncic, Daniel; Gisler, Katja Ida Maria - In: Journal of international money and finance 79 (2017), pp. 1-19
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011788346
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Modeling and forecasting realized volatility in German-Austrian continuous intraday electricity prices
Ciarreta, Aitor; Muniain, Peru; Zarraga, Ainhoa - In: Journal of forecasting 36 (2017) 6, pp. 680-690
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011861404
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The ARCH Effect : a model of gradual anticipation for autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns
El Din, Tarek Mohy - 1997
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000623956
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Long-term vs. short-term comovements in stock markets : the use of Markov-switching multifractal models
Idier, Julien - In: The European journal of finance 17 (2011) 1/2, pp. 27-48
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009155466
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Components of intraday volatility and their prediction at different sampling frequencies with application to DAX and BUND futures
Herrmann, Klaus; Teis, Stefan; Yu, Weijun - 2014
The adjusted measure of realized volatility suggested in [20] is applied to high- frequency orderbook and transaction … data of DAX and BUND futures from EU- REX in order to identify the drivers of intraday volatility. Four components are … realized volatility can be predicted by a simple linear model based on the components identified. It is shown how the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010442584
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Evaluating density forecasts with an application to stock market returns
Raaij, Gabriela de; Raunig, Burkhard - 2002
Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431370
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Delta-neutral volatility trading with intra-day prices : an application to options on the DAX
Schmitt, Christian; Kaehler, Jürgen - 1996
This paper evaluates the profitability of applying four different volatility forecasting models to the trading of … applied in this paper are: historical volatility, two ARCH models, and an autoregressive model for the volatility index. VDAX …. The ARCH models perform best in generating profits for market makers. Forecasts based on historical volatility also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011622744
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Evaluating density forecasts with an application to stock market returns
Raaij, Gabriela de; Raunig, Burkhard - 2002
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001650402
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Evaluating density forecasts with an application to stock market returns
Raaij, Gabriela de; Raaij, Gabriela de; Raunig, Burkhard - 2002
Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001657476